Brutal Election Results: What the Heck Happened?

Riley Sweeney is a former campaign manager who writes The Political Junkie, a blog focused on Whatcom County politics.

It was a hard election night for environmentalists, to put it mildly. In one fell swoop, national Republicans took control of the Senate, strengthened their majority in the House and picked up a slew of Governor’s mansions.

Locally, the news seemed even more crushing. Environmental champion Seth Fleetwood got hammered by Sen. Doug Ericksen. Ericksen made headlines for the last two years for accepting more free meals from lobbyists than any other state legislator and blocking all climate change and oil safety legislation.

It was not for lack of trying. Fleetwood raised over $400,000 and independent groups threw in another $400,000 beyond that. In response, Ericksen raised over $500,000 to defend his seat, a majority of it coming from the fossil fuel industry and the state Republicans (with even more funding from the fossil fuel industry) threw another $467,000 in attack ads against Fleetwood.

What drew this colossal array of electoral firepower? The fate of the state senate. Thanks to a few Democratic turncoats in 2011, the state senate has been in Republican control for the last couple of years. They used their power to delay investments in our transportation infrastructure, fully fund education and, as mentioned above, block all climate change legislation.

Seeing an opportunity to pick up a seat — or protect it — in the 42nd District, forces on both sides marshaled small armies of volunteers, filled the airwaves and mailboxes with political ads and filled the newspapers with angry letters to the editor.

The 42nd District, however, is a barren place for Democrats and this was a poor year to be one. The end result was Ericksen winning by 17 percentage points. So what happened? As John F. Kennedy once said, “Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.” While raw data can not provide us a paternity test, here are a few of the likely culprits.

Low Democratic Turnout

Just over 51,000 voters cast their ballots this year in the 42nd, compared to the 65,000 who voted in 2012 and 60,000 who voted in 2010. Who didn’t vote? Younger voters and those living near Lake Whatcom, Blaine and Birch Bay — in other words, precincts that lean Democratic.

High Republican Turnout

Meanwhile, the precincts surrounding Lynden and north Ferndale actually had more voters in 2014 than in 2012, gaining 200-500 voters each. Older, white voters turned out in huge numbers, which also affected non-partisan races, where obscure Charter Review candidates associated with the local Tea Party catapulted ahead of well-known union representatives, popular environmentalists and even a former city councilman.

The Reshaped 42nd District

In 2012, the state redistricting committee, a bipartisan group of Olympia insiders, redrew all the district lines in the state. They had asked Kelli Linville if she was interested in running to retake her seat that she had recently lost to Vincent Buys, but Linville was quite content with her new job — mayor of Bellingham — and politely declined. As a result, the Democrats ceded that territory, allowing the Republicans to redraw the former swing district so that it was even more conservative. Around 4,000 voters, mostly from downtown Bellingham and the Columbia neighborhood where cut out of the 42nd District and deposited into the solidly liberal 40th district — including future candidate Seth Fleetwood.

And the result? A district that once elected moderates like Pete Kremen, Dale Brandland and Kelli Linville is now represented by some of the most conservative legislators in the state, according to the Washington Conservative Union.

These causes are what we can immediately identify with data. But that is only part of the story. We can tell who voted and how they voted, but we have no magic spreadsheet for the “why.” There is no perfect way of determining what factor caused people to vote one way or another, but there are always plenty of theories.

Poor Messaging/No Motivation

A popular theory from the national stage is that Democrats did not give their base a good reason to turnout. What bold policies were Democrats proposing to win favor with voters? What strong stances helped them stand out from their competition? Without a clear rallying point, Democrats simply did not feel motivated to turn out.

However, there was a salient issue on the ballot in our state. I-594 provided for universal background checks for gun sales — a popular issue and a clear contrast between Democrats and Republicans. However, local Democrats did not merge their efforts with the gun initiative, and Fleetwood skirted the issue at the Bellingham City Club debate with Ericksen.

The Campaign Was “Too Negative”

For many, the negative barrage of ads was a turnoff for engaging with this election. As local political analyst John Servais said on his blog, Northwest Citizen, “I’ve known Seth for many years and feel he would have preferred to speak of his values and vision for the voters of the 42nd District. I think his advisors just pushed him into allowing that negative stuff.”

The counterpoint here is that the county council elections last year were incredibly negative — gruesome mailers of blood-soaked slaughterhouses attacked conservative candidates — but that did not reduce conservative or liberal turnout. Turnout increased in south Bellingham, however, due to the coal trains issue.

The All-Purpose “Thanks, Obama”

Another theory is simply Democratic fatigue. After six years of a Democratic president, the nation, and Whatcom County in miniature, were simply tired of anyone with a “D” next to her name. Like frustrated teenagers pushing the “change channel” button every two years, despondent and disillusioned voters simply vote out the party in power.

However, the 42nd has been in mostly Republican hands for years, and the incumbents won. If this was a surge of anti-establishment fever, why did we give more power to the local establishment?

The Strange, Unusual and Ever-shifting 42nd District. We live in an odd part of the country. The 42nd District includes the aging Birch Bay, industrial Ferndale, agricultural Lynden, transient north Bellingham and gentrified Lake Whatcom. It contains Russian immigrants, a Sikh temple, a growing Latino presence and two Native tribes. Each year, more Satellites retire to Birch Bay, more young Bellingham families move to the unincorporated county and outer Ferndale, and the city limits of Bellingham creep northward, adding more urban density with every step.

In short, while the 42nd District is rocky turf for environmental candidates, the landscape is always shifting as demographics change and public opinion shifts. Next year, we take a break from partisan politics (ha ha ha!), and elect our local mayors, councilmembers, county officials and school boards.

We will not need to dwell on the 42nd until 2016, when the presidential race will reshape the chess board once again.