A Proposal for Transition Town Initiatives and Peak Oil Update

John Rawlins has a B.S. in physics and a Ph.D. in nuclear physics. He retired in 1995 from the Westinghouse Hanford Co. at the Hanford site in Eastern Washington. He recently retired from teaching physics and astronomy at Whatcom Community College.

The world oil production peak is now. The decline is to start soon and will be steep; the recession/depression could go on indefinitely. In the September 2008 Whatcom Watch issue, I related the following forecast from Dave Cohen of U.S. ASPO (Associate for Study of Peak Oil):

The official forecast is as follows:

1. Global oil production will peak between 76-77 Mb/d (1.7–2.7 Mb/d more than now) between 2010–2012, with an 80 percent probability.

2. There is a 20 percent probability that the peak will be something other than the range 76–77 (either higher or lower) in the time interval 2009–2013.

Cohen wrote this (and I relayed it) before the October 2008 world financial collapse that is still underway as I write this article. In the interim, several articles by many of the more thoughtful analysts/writers have re-assessed the oil supply/demand situation in the light of the recent economic problems, and there is some degree of consensus among the various lines of reasoning.

Tom Whipple, who is an analyst and writer for ASPO-USA, described very clearly the pushes and pulls between the world economic situation and oil production/demand. The URL for his summary is: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47049.

The list of conclusions is as follows:

1. Declining economic conditions led to a slight decline in world oil demand (use), to the tune of perhaps 1–2 percent, led by a 9 percent decline in U.S. demand. Europe’s demand stayed flat, while industrializing economies (China, India, etc.) continue to grow and demand more (their governments heavily subsidize the cost of fuel).

2. The decline in world demand was enough to result in a slight overproduction of oil, which in turn collapsed oil prices from a high of close to $150 per barrel, to today’s (late October 2008) price of around $65 per barrel. In response, producing countries are starting to reduce production in an attempt to stabilize oil prices at around $100 per barrel. There is even talk of OPEC and Russia perhaps collaborating in this effort, which would be a first and could ignite fire and brimstone from U.S. politicians.

3. Every day there is another announcement of stoppage of a project to produce additional pumping capacity, and it appears likely that almost all new capacity projects will either be cancelled or significantly (years) delayed because of constipated world credit conditions. This means that the rate of change of ongoing production will determine when oil production (currently flat) will begin to decline, and at what rate. On that topic, estimates vary between now and 4 percent per year, to now and 10 percent per year.

4. One highly likely result from conclusion #3 is that the intersection of oil decline with economic collapse will ensure that economic collapse will endure, with possible brief stops and restarts. The reason — there has always been (and will always be?) a strong correlation (including causality) effect between world oil production and the world economic condition. There may simply be no way to power our way out of poor economic conditions by using more energy.

Many politicians are now advocating for heavy emphasis on a green energy revolution (principally biofuel, solar and wind), but starting major new programs and projects faces large economic hurdles.

5. At some point, the price of oil therefore must rise again to the point that it destroys enough demand to balance with supply. Various estimates exist for how high the price of oil might get, but I’m skeptical of all these estimates. Will anyone be able to afford fuel at $500 per barrel for oil? $1,000 per barrel? We’ve never been in this situation, and I see no way of making projections.

What I do know is that other industrialized countries have very large taxes on transport fuel, so they have a much, much higher degree of flexibility to control transport fuel price than we do in the U.S. In the U.S., $200 per barrel oil would result in gasoline prices of $4 per gallon and up, and we already know that rates like that are threatening to bankrupt major auto manufacturers and have reduced driving by lower income people.

6. The bottom line of this reasoning is that, while the present economic crisis arose mostly because of stupendously risky behavior on the part of the world’s economic institutions (augmented by poor choices of many home buyers), declining transport fuels will ensure that much worse is yet to come, and that the time scale for the second wave (the peak oil onslaught) is short (one to two years). Three months ago I was thinking two to four years.

The next U.S. administration will therefore inherit the nightmare situation of a near-perfect storm (a perfect storm would also include expensive problems arising from climate change and even bigger shortages of chemical fertilizer), powered by the combined economic and fuel crises. This means that the time frame for planning localized adaptation strategies is extremely short.

To illustrate why these extremely important conclusions are somewhat obvious in a graphical manner, consider the graph below. These data come from an ongoing project conducted by Chris Skrebowski, consulting editor for the U.K. oil industry journal Petroleum Review. The prediction graph is a “stacked” one, with each year’s projected new capacity (based on actual plans) added to the base (2003) production shown as a solid shade.

The data curve represents total measured global production, according to the U.S. Department of Energy Information Administration (EIA), through the year 2007. Today, we know quite well what capacity additions could be through 2012, but not much about years beyond that.

Please see the printed edition for the figure referred to here....

First, note the good agreement between the predicted shape of the curve since 2003 and the measured data. Second note that, if there had been no new capacity added since 2003 (mentally subtract all the thin strips), the world would already be experiencing decline rates of around 5 percent per year (some analysts claim the decline rate for the base production is more like 9 percent per year).

Then note what happens if you lop off all new production beyond the end of the data (2007) — within half a year the world would be experiencing that same level of decline. So delay today in bringing on projects that compensate for decline of the base results in a rapidly changing energy production regime, with no hope of ever recovering today’s level of oil production.

Instead of a peak around 2011 (plus or minus a year), we could experience a peak and decline within the next year or two — with the likely result that energy shortages thereafter would ensure continuation of an economic recession or depression (which in turn might continue to delay new capacity additions, depending on oil prices).

Spreading rapidly in England and the U.S. is a model called Transition Town Initiatives. A few years ago, Rob Hopkins realized that his permaculture training might be useful in helping towns plan for the energy descent that peak oil analysts like Colin Campbell, Ken Deffeyes and Jean Laherre were predicting. He guided a group of college students in developing an Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP) in the village of Kinsale, Ireland.

The EDAP contained some specific dates and targets for transitioning to a lower energy future, consistent with what the peak oil analysts were predicting. You can download the EDAP for free at: http://transitionculture.org/2005/11/24/kinsale-energy-descent-action-plan. The town council concurred with and adopted the plan.

Hopkins moved on to another town, Totnes, in the U.K., and began to develop what he calls Transition Town Initiatives (TTI). The ultimate output of one of these initiatives is an Energy Descent Action Plan — but the difference in approach between the Kinsale effort and that in Totnes is major. In Totnes, through a multistep process, people from all walks of life participated in large numbers to develop the final plan, and the total effort required around two years.

Hopkins has helped start a number of subsequent TTIs around the U.K., some involving very large populations. When he realized that the approach might apply in other countries as well, he wrote a book called “The Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience” (240 pages, Chelsea Green, 2008, paperback, $24.95).

Richard Heinberg, author of “Peak Everything” and other peak oil books, says, “If your town is not yet a Transition Town, here is the guidance for making it one. We have little time, and much to accomplish.” Since Heinberg wrote those words, “little time” has become “littler time.”

The first part of Hopkins’ book, called “The Head,” describes the physical situation of world oil supply and the expected impacts on industrialized countries resulting from oil supply peaking and decline. Readers of past issues of this column will find nothing new in those chapters, but it’s still a good peak oil primer to have on the bookshelf.

The second part, called “The Heart,” goes into the psychology of change and an introduction to trying to envision what the future — in this case 2030 — will look like. Given the resulting future vision, one can then “backcast” to develop a plan that gets from here to there.

The final part, called “The Hands,” is a highly prescriptive list of actions taken by community members to go through the Transition Initiative process — and this is of course the main usefulness of this book. The overall 12-step process takes as long as the community members determine, and is typically 12 to 24 months. At the end of this learning/planning process, the result is a few demonstration projects around the area and an Energy Descent Action Plan with a schedule for remaking the community over the 20-year period.

If you’re interested in participating in this community restructuring planning process, I urge you to learn what you can about Hopkins’ efforts. Of course, the most straightforward way to do this is to purchase the book (I got my copy at Village Books in Fairhaven for $25) and read it carefully.

Meanwhile, the joint Bellingham/Whatcom County Energy Resource Scarcity and Peak Oil (ERSPO) Task Force members are presently studying this kind of approach and trying to decide whether/how to apply it to Whatcom County.

As you may recall, Portland’s city council adopted a peak oil task force report that identified impacts of peak oil and made recommendations for how the city might cope with those impacts. While the report has been very useful to our ERSPO task force, there is general recognition that it lacks the specificity most of us want. However, regardless of what ERSPO concludes from its deliberations, I suggest that interested persons throughout the county think about engaging in Transition Initiative (TI) efforts.

As I tried to imagine how to structure a countywide TI effort, I was at first stymied because I was thinking in terms of one single initiative. All of the U.K. initiatives involve a relatively small geographic area, so it was/is straightforward to involve the entire community without horrendous amounts of driving to get to events. The most logical way I see to accomplish something similar for our Whatcom County would be to launch several TIs, coordinated in some way across the county for consistency in some aspects.

One way of subdividing the county that occurred to me is to use the existing public high school boundaries as a rough guide for establishing different groups. We could even ask city and county councils to approach those various high schools and request that they provide meeting space for many of the individual events.

By my count, that would come to seven separate TI groups. Individual community members wanting to participate could pick any group to work with, and for some participants it might even make sense to work with more than one group.

There are some areas of planning overlap that occur to me: food production and delivery, local currency, transport between regions and possibly energy projects that overlap regions. I’m sure there are more — but the point is that there will need to be a significant level of coordination of the different efforts around the county to deal with overlapping needs and ideas.

The ERSPO final report will outline the various energy constraints that would drive the various planning efforts. It will also list expected impacts of peak oil and general energy scarcity, as well as possible adaptation options. It’s not presently obvious to me how to achieve the required cross-county coordination, and I’m searching for ideas.

Here are some YouTube videos of Hopkins explaining the transition town process.

• You Tube: Rob Hopkins introduces the Transition Town concept:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGHrWPtCvg0.

• You Tube: Rob Hopkins gives a seven-minute overview of the first six transition steps: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_M3B8h_KSk.

• You Tube: Rob Hopkins gives a five-minute overview of the second six transition steps: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-RBszJuUrI.

• Transition Town Lewes Launch — a four-minute video designed to draw people in: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKY2H2yOcP8.

Finally, if you live in either the Mt. Baker or Nooksack school district and wish to begin having some conversations about taking control of our futures through Transition Town Initiatives, please contact me via e-mail: john235mary@earthlink.net. I will be more than happy to help groups get started in both those districts.

I can also provide, on short notice, a graphical powerpoint presentation and/or videos for background material. If you live elsewhere in the county and want to contact someone for help getting started, let me know and I’ll try to hook you up with someone else from ERSPO. We have a short window of opportunity to take charge of defining a future that we want, rather than just letting it happen to us. §