Climate Change in Washington State

Alison Bickerstaff, a resident of Sudden Valley, is an environmental science major and Fairhaven student at Western Washington University. She has been previously published in the Huxley College magazine, The Planet.

With snow blanketing western Washington in the first week of March, it may be hard to believe that the first three months of 2002 were the warmest on record in the United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

What’s more, the global temperature for January 2002 was the highest temperature on record for that month in the last 123 years, says NOAA.

And while the warmth did not hit the Pacific Northwest this time, the temperature record in the region has shown a warming trend over the last century—a warming trend that actually exceeds the rate of global warming. In fact, the mean annual February temperature in Bellingham, Washington, has increased 4?F since 1920.

According to atmospheric scientist Phil Mote, the region’s warming in temperature was the highest in the 1990s compared to the whole temperature record on the books. Mote works for Climate Impacts Group of the University of Washington, a program which aims to help the region become more resilient to climate variation and change. Climate Impacts Group is a combination of scientific research and public outreach.

“Warming is actually higher in Washington, and we don’t know why,” Mote said. “We can’t say that’s because of greenhouse gases, but it is the most likely explanation.”

Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have risen 30 percent compared to pre-industrial levels, and the main culprit is likely carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The resulting greenhouse effect-induced warming has occurred at an unprecedented rate.

According to a report published by the Environmental Protection Agency on climate change in Washington state, the result this increase in greenhouse gases will have on future climate is uncertain.

“The climate is complex and dynamic,” said the report. “Further, humans have never experienced such a rapid increase in greenhouse gases. In effect, a large and uncontrollable planet-wide experiment is being conducted.”

Indeed, we have set in motion a global experiment—and local guinea pigs right here in Washington state are not exempt.

Amy Snover, a research scientist with Climate Impacts Group, does integrated assessments of climate change to see what we may have in store.

“We looked at eight global climate models and we extracted their results for the Pacific Northwest,” Snover said. “All the models predict it will get warmer. For the 2040s it will warm by 4.7?F in the winter and 5.2?F in the summer. None of the eight said it would be cooler.”

But don’t whip out your sunglasses quite yet. In Washington state it will mean more than just sunnier weather. For a state that is already notorious for its precipitation, it may come as a surprise that more rain is also in the forecast.

“The models don’t agree as much on precipitation,” Snover said. “But the average prediction is a two percent increase in precipitation in summer and a nine percent increase in winter.”

Unfortunately for local skiers and snowboarders, that increase in precipitation will fall less as snow in the future and more as rain.

The snowline is expected to creep up in elevation and glaciers are expected to recede as temperature increases. In fact, scientists have already documented glacial retreat in the South Cascades. Although scientists have done little work to document a similar trend in snow levels, models predict a decrease in snowpack in the future and an increase in wintertime stream flow.

“Increased winter stream flow could mean more flooding and negative effects on spawning grounds,” Snover said. “You’d have less stream flow in spring. Decreased stream flow in spring could affect returning salmon.”

Besides effects on salmon and the fisheries economy, an altered hydrologic cycle will also mean summertime droughts. A lot of the water we rely on for electric power generation, municipal water supply, and farm irrigation during the summer months is really water stored from snow and glacier melt.

“Summer droughts are often caused by too little spring and summer stream flow,” Snover said. “It’s quite likely that there will be more frequent drought.”

Along with threats for meeting energy production and agricultural demands, future droughts may also increase the risk of forest fires.

Western Washington University Professor David Wallin studies forest ecosystems and what the future may have in store for them.

“In general, we’re pretty confident that the world is going to become a warmer place,” Wallin said. “And here in the Pacific Northwest one of the implications of that might be to influence the fire regime…influence the frequency and the severity of fires.”

Wallin explained that forest fires on the west side of Cascades have tended, historically, to be high severity, infrequent fires. On the east side of the Cascades, fires were more frequent but tended to be light underburns which cleared out the understory.

In recent times, we have put much energy into suppressing these lighter fires. Consequently, the once grassy, open understory has grown in with more dense vegetation.

“With global warming you might expect to see here on the west side maybe an increase in fire frequency, and the same thing on the east side,” Wallin said. “It’s likely that we’re going to see an increase in the frequency of those very, very high severity fires, fires that are essentially uncontrollable, and those kind of fires will be most frequent on the east side of the Cascades.”

He said tree species distribution, which climate determines, will be also affected in some ways. However, species such as Douglas fir have a pretty wide temperature range and may not be affected as much. Other species may not fair so well.

“One of the speculations has been that the rate of climate change might be so fast that for some species, they might not be able to shift their distribution fast enough to keep up with their ‘optimum environmental envelope’,” Wallin said.

In fact, a recent report released by the World Wildlife Fund warns about this very threat. The report, “Habitats at Risk: Global Warming and Species Loss in Globally Significant Terrestrial Ecosystems,” claims that the Olympic National Forest on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula may be vulnerable to climate change in the future. As the forest’s optimum climate conditions shift northward, the forest will have nowhere to move because the Pacific Ocean will block it.

Wallin said there has been speculation that some tree species may need a little help adjusting.

“We might need to help move species around to keep them within their optimum environmental envelope.... And that gets into an ethical debate.”

According to Wallin, shifts in treelines have already been documented in Washington, but present shifts are likely to be fairly modest. The Olympic National Forest is in no immediate danger, and there has been no serious discussion yet to give tree species a helping hand.

Climate change may also influence the distribution of pests and disease, Wallin said, and this may make some trees more vulnerable to attack.

Besides the effect of climate change on forest health, some doctors feel climate change will affect human health in the future as well.

In 2000, Physicians for Social Responsibility, a national health education and advocacy organization, published “Death by Degrees: The Health Threats of Climate Change in Washington.” This report aimed to alert Washington residents to the possible human health consequences of climate change and to encourage residents to slow global warming by reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

Along with climate change, claimed the report, some speculate an increased frequency of storm events and extreme weather. This is particularly relevant to Washington, which is a leader in presidentially-declared weather disasters.

“Future climatic conditions may increase the intensity and frequency of extreme events snow, floods, storms, high winds, and lightning—that incur high health and economic tolls,” said the report.

Heavy rains could also increase the frequency of landslides and mudslides which can affect electricity, water supply, sewage systems, and gas lines. Injury, death, and contamination of drinking water are all health threats which may result.

University of Washington Professor Tim Takaro, an occupational and environmental medicine physician, was on the Washington Advisory Board for the report. According to Takaro, one of the most severe, direct health effects this state will see is an increase in heat-related illnesses due to heat waves.

“In the Northwest, we won’t have as many heat events as in the middle part of the country, but we will have them,” Takaro said. “People who are susceptible, primarily elderly, those without the means to find a cool spot, those disadvantaged populations, and also those with chronic illness are the people usually affected by these heat events.”

Takaro feels one of greatest indirect health effects Washington state will face is the immigration of climate change refugees from other parts of the world.

“We’re going to be a kind of haven for climate change because we are northerly — we’re moderated by water — so our climate is going to be more favorable,” Takaro said. “If you think about the consequences of a one meter rise in sea level... huge parts of the Pacific are going to be flooded, whole nations are going to be underwater.... So that’s a lot of people, and they have to go somewhere.”

Refugees may also bring with them a range of infectious diseases that could compromise human health. In addition, climate change is expected to affect the distribution of vector-born diseases like malaria, tick-born fevers, and Lyme disease. But Tarako warns there is much uncertainty of how vulnerable Washington state will be to these threats.

“While we are certain about the climate warming, the impacts on a particular spot are a little hard to pinpoint still,” Takaro said. “It’s like predicting the weather.”

One factor associated with warming that is predictable, however, is ozone levels in the atmosphere.

“That’s an important toxicant for children, particularly those with asthma,” Takaro said. “You can expect an increase in periods where the ozone levels are affecting asthmatics.”

When asked if he felt health would actually improve in the future if humans made an effort to mitigate climate change, Takaro said that no one really knows the answer.

“I think that question needs to be answered with the precautionary principle in mind, which is: we’ll not actually be able to answer that question because we’re not going to run an experiment. We are the experiment. We know that not reducing (carbon dioxide emissions) is going to increase health threats.”

Not reducing emissions that enhance the greenhouse effect may also increase the threat of sea level rise, an indirect effect Takaro said may cause an influx of immigration.

But sea level rise has already directly established itself in several parts of Washington, claims a report by the Washington State Department of Ecology. The report, “Vertical Land Movement in Washington: The Implications for Future Sea Level Rise,” says that in Seattle, the relative sea level has risen at a rate of about eight inches per century.

The report explained that western Washington is tilting eastward, with the outer coast moving up and the Puget Lowland moving down. The combination of tectonic plate movement coupled with the fact that the land is still adjusting to glacial rebound from the last ice age means scientists must consider vertical land movement when they measure sea level rise.

Consequently, parts of Washington are uplifting, like Neah Bay, and parts are subsiding, like Olympia. By combining this knowledge with global predictions, an Environmental Protection Agency report predicts that at Seattle, sea level is likely to rise 19 inches in the next century alone.

“Many marshes (in the Puget Sound) region have been diked, drained, and converted to farmland during the last century,” said the report. “Sea level rise could gradually inundate the remaining tidal flats.... The cumulative cost of sand replenishment to protect Washington’s coastline from a 20-inch sea level rise by 2100 is estimated at $143 million to $2.3 billion.”

Western Washington University Professor John Rybczyk studies climate change and processes affecting coastal areas and wetlands. He explained that as the earth warms, two factors affect sea level rise: the thermal expansion of water and the melting of ice. The question is whether coastal areas will be able to adapt.

“Coastal systems have a natural ability to accrete, to grow, in response to sea level rise, or sink if sea levels are going down,” Rybczyk said. “They maintain themselves within the tidal range that they’re appropriate to... and that’s why it’s a wetland. So the question is that as the sea rises faster and faster... can coastal systems accrete at that pace?”

Some areas will, said Rybczyk, because vertical land movement may counteract any rise in sea level. Also, the high tidal range the state experiences may make it more resilient to sea level change. But there are possible areas of concern.

With speculation of more severe storm events in the future, even small increases in sea level could means huge waves may threaten coastal infrastructure. Rybczyk explained other reasons for concern.

“In so many areas, we’ve altered our normal sediment distribution because of dams that trap sediments behind them in the rivers,” Rybczyk said. “Also most rivers now don’t even flood anymore because they’re dammed or levied off...so you never get that beautiful flood of nutrients and sediments onto the coastal plains anymore.”

Without proper sediment deposition, coastal areas cannot accrete fast enough. Additionally, Rybczyk warns that we may need to bolster dikes and even pump water to protect agricultural lands. Maintenance of these areas will require careful planning and expenditures, he said.

Rybczyk also said that protecting estuarine wetlands in places such as the Puget Sound and Willapa Bay is necessary. These are productive, nutrient-rich environments that support many types of life.

“They are also important economically in terms of shellfish, in terms of salmon, in terms of crab, in terms of tourism. They’re often important industrially because these are our ports,” Rybczyk said. “They’re important here in Washington in terms of agriculture as well. And all fisheries are tied to it.... Salmon use these coastal estuaries as they hatch and move down river to go out to sea. There’s so many competing uses that there’s an interest in preserving these for every single spectrum.”

The article by Patrick Mazza, “In Hot Water: A Snapshot of the Northwest’s Changing Climate,” (Whatcom Watch reprinted this article in six excerpts, December 1999 through May 2000) puts into perspective why Washington residents should be concerned about preserving such resources.

“We consider forests, salmon, snowcapped mountains and rivers abundant with water for our cities, power and farms to be enduring features of Northwest lifestyle,” Mazza wrote. “But each is dependent on arrival of the right amount and quality of water at the right time. If we disturb nature’s free water delivery service...it spells trouble. Such disruption is precisely what global warming threatens to bring home.”

Mazza works for Climate Solutions, a nonprofit advocacy group whose mission is to make the Northwest a leader in global climate solutions. The group helps communities, government, and industries explore solutions to benefit local economy and quality of life.

In an interview, Mazza explained the role Washington state can play in shaping the future.

“What we’re saying is, what we do here in our region really counts,” he said. “If we succeed, we can see a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. In doing so we can develop models that people can look at in other places. We can also generate new businesses and new industries that can export new solutions to the other parts of the world.”

According to Mazza, there are good opportunities here with renewable and non-polluting energy sources. There are already some small businesses in Washington—fuel cell, wind turbine design, and energy efficiency companies—that have great potential.

“You can have new industry being born and we need that,” Mazza said. “There are a number of things the public does to promote new energy. We are also reaching out to rural communities.”

He explained that creative, new technology with farms could generate energy that could replace petroleum. Wind farms and the production of bio-fuels could boost the local economy.

“You have a chance to keep the money circulating at home and not abroad,” Mazza said. “We need a transformation to renewable energy.”

But even if we were to switch to renewable or non-polluting energy sources today and suddenly stop our production of CO2, we would still see the mercury rise for many decades to come.

Mote from Climate Impacts Group likens what we have in store to driving a big truck.

“We can’t slam on the brakes 20 feet before the intersection and expect to stop,” Mote said. “We’ve bought ourselves a new climate, and we’re going to have to live with it.”

While promoting climate change adaptation and energy innovation here could stimulate the local economy, the environmental and health benefits from those efforts will not be seen any time soon.

So although Washington state is a leader in global warming now, we have the opportunity, some may say the responsibility, to become a leader in forging climate change solutions for the benefit of generations to come. This will require dedication, foresight, and a lot of hard work.

There can be no doubt–the heat is on.